![]() This arctic airmass will bring bitter cold to a large portion of the U.S., with dry and/or stable conditions precluding thunderstorm potential. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will envelop much of the country outside of the Southwest and Southeast. A reinforcing shortwave will dig southeast from the northern Rockies into the Plains within the larger-scale trough. SynopsisĪ broad upper level trough will remain over the CONUS on Sunday. ![]() Severe storms are not expected on Sunday. Valid 141200Z - 151200Z NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST Outlook Imagesĭay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Outlook for Sunday, January 14 Outlook Summary NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z ← back to overview A strong EML inversion – likely from Mexican Plateau air advected over the southern/central Gulf – is evident in 12Z MFL/KEY soundings, and will restrict deep-convective potential over southernmost FL and the Keys. Severe potential appears too small for an unconditional, areal outlook. As such, a linear mode should remain dominant, and a strong gust or two cannot be ruled out in briefly organized cells. Ongoing 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes should diminish gradually through the day, and remain nearly parallel to the convective band. Through the day, as the front proceeds southward down the peninsula, the foregoing moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the low 70s F) will destabilize diabatically, while somewhat veered prefrontal flow keeps convergence minimally sufficient for continued convection. Central/south FLĪ cold front was analyzed at 11Z across central FL, accompanied by by a thin band of convection and sporadic/embedded thunderstorms. ![]() ![]() Cold low-level conditions, following an intense frontal passage, will preclude more than very isolated/transient thunder potential, except for elevated convection possible over southeastern New England, and surface-based thunderstorms over parts of central/south FL. A smaller cyclone – evident in moisture-channel imagery over northeastern MT – should move southeastward across the northern Plains today, then pivot eastward across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley tonight, while devolving to an open-wave trough. That feature should eject northeastward to eastern Canada through the period. In mid/upper levels, a broad area of cold, cyclonic flow aloft covers most of the CONUS, anchored in part by an occluded deep-layer cyclone now over Lake Michigan and vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast in the conterminous U.S. Valid 131300Z - 141200Z NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ![]()
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